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Feb
13

CTA to build new rail station near Chicago's United Center

2/13/2017    

Rail News: Passenger Rail

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Feb
13

CSX extends board nominee deadline for 2017 annual meeting

2/13/2017    

Rail News: CSX Transportation

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Feb
13

Alaska Railroad cuts employees, costs to address operational losses

2/13/2017    

Rail News: Short Lines & Regionals

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Feb
13

FTA pulls some WMATA funding for now

2/13/2017    

Rail News: Passenger Rail

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Feb
13

Washington's winds of change – and whether they'll be sweeping

Rail News Home Federal Legislation & Regulation February 2017 Rail News: Federal Legislation & Regulation

— By This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., EditorWhile near-term economic forecasts are murky, particularly in a global context, the regulatory and legislative issues on U.S. railroaders’ minds are the same as they’ve been for the past several years, as Senior Associate Editor Julie Sneider notes in this month’s cover story. What’s changed are the political and rhetorical environments in which those issues might be debated in the months ahead.It’s a pretty safe bet railroads won’t have to work too hard to convince regulators or legislators to preserve or pare back regs. President Trump and the new Congress have been clear about how they feel about regulation. And that’s giving the association representatives that Sneider interviewed — as well as rail finance and leasing execs we surveyed during the information-gathering process for our 17th annual Finance & Leasing Guide — cause for optimism about the near term.Less certain is whether the new administration and Congress will side with the rail industry on (or even consider) other matters this year — whether it’s the bigger/heavier trucks issue or the call to extend the short-line tax credit. Then there’s the trade agreement and tariff talk, and the potential intermodal implications that go with it. Ultimately, it’s unclear where rail will rate on the urgency meter in 2017. Frankly, it’s unclear every year. But in 2017, the winds of change in Washington may sweep more than a few industry-specific issues off the discussion table. Or at least off to the side for a spell.Perhaps we’ll know more next month. On March 2, railroaders will be in Washington, D.C., to deliver their message(s) to congressfolk at Railroad Day on Capitol Hill. I’ll be doing my usual fly-on-the-wall observing and listening. I’ll report back — on the tone and tenor of the conversations, if nothing else.More star power at Secure Rail 2017We recently added more star power to the already-stellar lineup of speakers for Secure Rail 2017. Laird Pitz, vice president and chief risk officer for CP, and Jim McKenney, solutions architect-operational technology for CSX, have signed on as presenters at this year’s conference, which will be held April 5-6 at the Rosen Plaza Hotel in Orlando, Fla.Other presenters at our third annual conference will discuss the latest risks and threats to physical and cybersecurity, how to anticipate future threats, and other topics, including managing and protecting employees, passengers and assets. In all, there are more than 20 scheduled conference sessions.The theme of Secure Rail 2017 — the only conference that addresses North American rail security from an organizational perspective on both physical and cybersecurity — is “Protection, Prevention and Planning for the Future.”For more information or to register, visit SecureRailConference.com.
Keywords Browse articles on winds of change rail regulation President Trump Railroad Day Secure Rail 2017 Contact Progressive Railroading editorial staff.

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Feb
10

IANA launches new web tool for potential customers

2/10/2017    

Rail News: Intermodal

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Feb
10

Rising Stars nomination deadline nears

2/10/2017    

Rail News: People

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Feb
10

Oklahoma City officials kick off streetcar construction

2/10/2017    

Rail News: Passenger Rail

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Feb
10

MBTA commuter-rail operator unveils severe weather advisory system

2/10/2017    

Rail News: Passenger Rail

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Feb
10

CN reveals 2017 capex plans

2/10/2017    

Rail News: Canadian National Railway - CN

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Feb
10

U.S., Canadian rail traffic up, Mexican rail traffic down in Week 5

2/10/2017    

Rail News: Rail Industry Trends

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Feb
10

Port of Indiana-Burns Harbor logs 2.6 million tons of cargo in 2016

2/10/2017    

Rail News: Intermodal

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Feb
10

Rail advocates encouraged by Trump's emphasis on regulatory reform, infrastructure

Rail News Home Federal Legislation & Regulation February 2017 Rail News: Federal Legislation & Regulation

— By This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., Senior Associate EditorFor rail industry lobbyists and trade associations, many of the legislative issues in the 115th Congress are carryovers from the 114th Congress: federal funding, a pro-business regulatory environment, tax reform and fair trade policies.One major and obvious change, however, is how those issues will fit in with whatever transportation policy is developed under President Donald Trump.Many association representatives who spoke with Progressive Railroading prior to the Jan. 20 inauguration and during the early days of the new Congress noted that while details on the future of federal transportation policy remained few and far between, they were optimistic about the days ahead. That optimism was due primarily to Trump’s promise to produce a pro-business regulatory environment as well as a massive — if not rail-specific — plan to beef up the nation’s ailing transportation infrastructure. Both are concepts that rail advocates say they can get behind.Prior to and since the November 2016 elections, Association of American Railroads (AAR) President and Chief Executive Officer Ed Hamberger has called on Congress and the new administration to rescind proposed regulations that the association believes would undermine the freight-rail industry if approved.For example, in a December 2016 "Outlook 2017" column for ProgressiveRailroading.com, Hamberger noted that the proposed "reciprocal" or "competitive switching" rule amounts to re-regulation. Proposed by the Surface Transportation Board (STB), the rule would "force carriers to turn their traffic over to competitor railroads, which would significantly compromise network efficiency, and in turn reduce investments" in railroad infrastructure, Hamberger wrote.Reciprocal switching refers to a situation in which a railroad that has physical access to a specific shipper facility switches rail traffic to the facility for another railroad that does not have physical access. In 2011, the National Industrial Transportation League asked the STB to modify its competitive switching standards to allow certain captive shippers located in terminal areas to be granted access to nearby competing railroads.In October 2016, the STB proposed a rule that would allow shippers to switch cargo among large railroads if shippers can show the arrangements are "practicable and in the public interest" or "necessary to provide competitive rail service."Tried-and-true prioritiesSeveral rail suppliers and associations also have expressed concern about proposed STB measures they view as re-regulation. In October, a group of suppliers wrote to members of Congress to object to reciprocal switching and proposed rules that would regulate certain commodities. The letter was signed by GoRail, the National Railroad Construction and Maintenance Association (NRC), the Railway Engineering-Maintenance Suppliers Association, the Railway Supply Institute (RSI), Railway Systems Suppliers Inc. and the Railway Tie Association, as well as 106 individual suppliers."There are the tried-and-true traditional rail-industry priorities, most of which are still relevant and which we intend to focus on more than ever," says NRC President Chuck Baker. "On the freight-rail side, there’s the need to have a balanced and reasonable economic regulatory environment. And toward the end of 2016, there were some very worrisome potential rules being discussed at the STB."Baker believes the STB's consideration of the proposed rules will be "on hold" until President Trump fills two vacant seats on the board, which was expanded from three to five members under the STB Reauthorization Act of 2015 but has continued to operate as a three-member panel. The current STB members are Daniel Elliott III, Deb Miller and Ann Begeman. On Jan. 25, Trump named Begeman — a Republican — acting chairman to succeed Elliott, a Democrat appointed by President Barack Obama."We'll be aggressively making our case to the new board and commissioner that the regulations would be counterproductive for the rail industry and the economy," Baker adds.In December, the AAR asked that the STB refrain from making any decisions on the controversial regs until after Trump makes his board appointments. Moreover, AAR joined several associations and chambers of commerce to encourage House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) to make the "Regulatory Accountability Act" an early priority. The proposed law would require agencies to gather data, evaluate alternatives and solicit public opinions on the cost and benefits of government rules and regulations before they’re implemented. AAR voiced a similar plea in an early January letter to Vice President Mike Pence."We believe policymakers should ensure that rules are based on current and complete data and sound science; regulations are enacted only if benefits outweigh costs and agencies analyze the cumulative effects of proposed regulations; and 'guidance' and 'emergency orders' are limited as regulatory tools," Hamberger said in a prepared statement.On the regulatory reform front, the new administration appears to concur with the freight-rail industry’s viewpoint. On his first Monday in office, Trump told a gathering of chief executives that his administration would be cutting regulations "massively" — by 75 percent or "maybe more."Besides proposed regulations pending at the STB, other regulatory issues of concern to the industry include the U.S. Department of Transportation’s call for mandatory installation of electronically controlled pneumatic (ECP) brakes on certain trains carrying flammable liquids, and the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) proposed rule requiring a minimum of two-person crews on freight trains. Last month, U.S. Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) reintroduced legislation that would require a minimum of two crew members on all freight trains.Endorsed by rail labor organizations such as the SMART Transportation Division and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, a mandate for two-person crews is opposed by AAR, the American Short Line Regional Railroad Association (ASLRRA) and NRC."The two-man crew mandate makes no sense in a world of increasing automation, especially when we’re talking about railroads having to compete with autonomous trucks," says NRC's Baker.Regarding the brake mandate, the AAR has argued that less than 1 percent of all train accidents are related to failed brakes, and that USDOT has not produced enough data indicating that brake technology would improve safety.Truck-size debateAnother topic of concern to freight-rail advocates is the trucking industry's dogged lobbying for new federal standards that would allow for longer and heavier trucks on U.S. roadways. A two-year USDOT study on the impact of bigger trucks on highways didn't recommend whether current policy should be changed.Previously proposed bills have sought to allow states to raise truck weight limits from 80,000 pounds to 97,000 pounds, as well as permit double- and triple-trailer trucks to travel over longer distances. Although the issue has major implications for Class Is — namely, that more freight would be moved by trucks that aren’t contributing heavily to the upkeep cost of U.S. freeways — it also affects short lines that interchange with Class Is. AAR, ASLRRA and other freight-rail proponents cite safety concerns, as well."We care not only about the heavier trucks but longer trucks," says Nicole Brewin, RSI's vice president of government affairs. "We fought that last year and we’re gearing up to deal with that again this year."Another of the "tried-and-true" issues that will be back on the policy agenda is the 45G tax credit, which provides short lines and regionals a 50-cent tax credit for each dollar they spend on track rehabilitation and maintenance up to $3,500 per mile of track owned or leased by the railroad.In December 2015, Congress passed the fifth short-term extension of the credit, extending it through 2016. ASLRRA lobbied for support of the Building Rail Access for Customers and the Economy (BRACE) Act, a bipartisan bill introduced last year that would have made the tax credit permanent. But because there was no major tax reform legislation to attach the BRACE Act to, the bill didn't pass and the credit expired at 2016's end.Nevertheless, the BRACE Act was reintroduced in Congress on Jan. 30. Its passage will be ASLRRA’s primary legislative issue this year, said association President Linda Bauer Darr in an email."The short lines have a great story to tell — we fill a critical role in America's transportation network, promoting industrial development and serving customers in 49 states that would otherwise be disconnected from the national rail network," she said. "Critical to our success is the ability to self-fund our capital-intensive industry, which is in part achieved by the 45G tax credit."Other associations also have the tax credit issue at the top of their policy agendas."We'll support the ASLRRA on this issue as we have in the past," says Baker. "We'd like the solution to be that the tax credit becomes permanent so that we don’t have to do this routine every two years. That's a priority. There will be more clarity on it when tax reform is discussed in Congress."Probably the biggest unknown regarding transportation this year is what Trump's specific plan on infrastructure will entail. During the campaign, both he and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton pledged that if elected they’d pursue major investments in rebuilding roads, bridges, seaports, airports and railways.Although Trump has yet to reveal details, he has hinted the package could be worth up to $1 trillion, though some GOP members in Congress are likely to balk at such a high price tag.One potential way to appease the deficit hawks would be a bill that emphasizes private investment in infrastructure through tax credits and public-private partnerships — as opposed to direct federal investment. The private investment route is one that Trump reportedly was considering as of press time.And while Trump initially said he would have an infrastructure plan on the table during his first 100 days in office, members of Congress and rail lobbyists say they don’t expect to see anything until spring, at the earliest. In the interim, Congress will work on funding, House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Bill Shuster (R-Pa.) told The Hill in early January."We're going to start to work on it, but first of all, you've got to figure out the pay-fors, which will come, I believe, in the first 100 days," Shuster said in the article. "Then, in the next second 100 days is when we'll put together a big infrastructure package."On Jan. 24, Trump did take some action on infrastructure by signing an executive order to streamline the environmental review of critical infrastructure projects, a move that will help speed up the process once those projects are in the pipeline, Shuster said in a prepared statement. AAR's Hamberger also endorsed Trump's executive order, noting that "we also know too well how time consuming, costly and, at times, redundant it can be to fully implement an infrastructure project."Meanwhile, also on Jan. 24, Senate Democrats rolled out their own version of a $1 trillion plan for infrastructure and transportation projects, including $180 billion for rail and bus systems. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) quickly dismissed the Democrat’s plan as too much like Obama's federal stimulus bill, while Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said the Democrats won’t support a package that features tax breaks for infrastructure developers.Encouraging signStill, rail groups say they're encouraged by Trump’s promise to shore up and modernize U.S. transportation infrastructure. Regardless of when the president is ready to unfurl his plan, they’ll be ready for it and expect rail to be included, they say.Several rail associations already have endorsed Trump's selection of Elaine Chao as U.S. transportation secretary, a seasoned Capitol Hill insider who they expect will be helpful in garnering congressional support for the president’s plan. During her Senate confirmation hearing, Chao — who served as labor secretary under President George W. Bush and deputy secretary of transportation under President George H. W. Bush — talked about the need to streamline government bureaucracy in infrastructure projects, “unleash the potential” of private investment in transportation, and explore new technologies that will make transportation safer and more efficient.However, a package that includes direct federal investment — and not just leveraging private-sector dollars — will be necessary to boost passenger-rail systems, including funds to help them meet their state-of-good repair backlog, transit-rail officials say.The National Association of Railroad Passengers (NARP) will have a list of "shovel-ready" passenger-rail projects to recommend when Congress takes up infrastructure, says President Jim Mathews.Mathews believes "historic progress" has been made in recent years to secure bipartisan support for passenger-rail service in urban as well as rural communities. He notes that the five-year Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act of 2015 was a "huge win" for rail advocates because it contained a practical, bipartisan plan to ramp up investment."As I look to the future in the new Congress, there's an emerging consensus on the need for rail as a nonpartisan issue," says Mathews. "We are looking to build on that this year."One specific topic that NARP will focus on is a permanent funding mechanism."What we desperately need and will ask Congress for is a sustainable source of funding, and that’s especially true for passenger rail," Mathews says.American Public Transportation Association (APTA) officials also are encouraged by Trump’s ongoing emphasis on infrastructure investment, and the association is drafting its policy priorities for major legislation that may be introduced."The stage is set in a positive way to do something big on infrastructure," says Andrew Brady, APTA’s senior director of government affairs. "There are a lot of different ideas floating out there. But public transportation needs to be a part of it, so we’re preparing to make that case."Congress is still operating under a continuing resolution, which expires in April, Brady notes. But once the full appropriations process begins to fund federal programs, APTA will be advocating for money approved under the FAST Act to help transit-rail agencies pay for positive train control (PTC) implementation."Our member commuter railroads are committed to meeting the PTC deadline, so that item is high on our legislative agenda," says Brady.RSI also supports long-term dedicated funding for transit-rail."Our members and the rail industry would strongly benefit from increased investments in infrastructure upgrades and safety improvements," says Brewin.Likewise, NRC's members would benefit from a legislative package that promotes rail projects and the contracts that would result, says Baker. To help ensure rail contractors will benefit from such investment, NRC will be calling on Congress and the Trump administration to find ways to encourage transit agencies that accept funding for state-of-good repair projects to competitively bid the work to contractors, Baker says.Such efforts would help ensure publicly funded projects are completed in a more cost-efficient manner, he adds.Public support for transitRegardless of when Trump's infrastructure plan is introduced, rail advocates believe it will address public transit.APTA's Brady is convinced Congress is paying attention to growing public support for transit, which has been demonstrated in part by the number of recent voter-approved ballot initiatives that call for raising local taxes to fund construction or expansion of light rail, commuter rail, subways and streetcar lines."They're definitely noticing," Brady says. "I think it's interesting that, often times, the folks in Washington are led by the folks back home. There was a huge number of ballot measures that passed last November, which shows bipartisan support for rail as a passenger mobility mode."Email comments or questions to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..
Keywords Browse articles on President Donald Trump Association of American Railroads regulations tax reform reciprocal switching Surface Transportation Board infrastructure passenger rail PTC short lines BRACE Act Contact Progressive Railroading editorial staff.

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Feb
09

Rail supplier news from Trimble, Greenbrier, AECOM and Transdev (Feb. 9)

2/9/2017    

Rail News: Supplier Spotlight

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Feb
09

Patriot Rail restructures commercial sales team

2/9/2017    

Rail News: People

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Feb
09

PANYNJ issues RFP for LaGuardia AirTrain system

2/9/2017    

Rail News: Passenger Rail

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Feb
09

Virginia issues RFP for manager of Atlantic Gateway rail projects

2/9/2017    

Rail News: MOW

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Feb
09

Genesee & Wyoming posts earnings growth in Q4 2016

2/9/2017    

Rail News: Financials

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Feb
09

Caltrain challenges GOP call to block grant for electrification project

2/9/2017    

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Feb
08

Rail finance and leasing execs expect a more business-friendly environment, and a better year, in 2017 — survey

Rail News Home Mechanical February 2017 Rail News: Mechanical

By This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., editor


How is 2017 likely to shape up, business wise, for the rail finance and leasing set? Will it be better than 2016? Many finance and leasing execs tell us they think it will, in large part because they expect the Trump administration to cultivate a more business-friendly regulatory environment.Many also expect to confront some of the same challenges and market conditions they've been grappling with the past couple years.

A sampling of North American railroad finance and leasing officials shared their thoughts via responses to survey questions we sent during the information gathering — most of the responses were penned before President Trump took office — for our 17th annual Finance & Leasing Guide, which was published in our February issue.What else are they thinking about? Their lightly edited responses to our 2017 survey questions, which were submitted via email or shared during telephone conversations, follow.
From a business standpoint, will 2017 be better than 2016? Worse? Why?Better. If liquidity chasing rail deals begins to dry up, it will be good for [companies] committed to the market through cycles. For current asset owners, the prices and lease rates are expected to continue softening, which may stress some operators and lead to some consolidation.From a business perspective, we anticipate that 2017 will be a better year than 2016. We anticipate seeing some stabilization in both coal and oil based on a few positive factors — for instance, the [new] president slowing the war on coal [and] the EIA prediction that natural gas prices will continue to trend up. And if OPEC and non-OPEC member countries can agree to stick to their agreements, as the price of oil moves, we anticipate with some delay a more positive number of carload originations in the energy space. We anticipate record setting new (and some old crop carry in) crop corn and soybeans continuing to have strong transportation demands. Additionally, [given] the need to focus on highways, bridges and other infrastructure, we anticipate stone, sand and aggregates as well as the steel and scrap industries to benefit, all of which should encourage rail-car utilization for open-top hoppers and gondolas.While 2016 was a difficult and complicated year for most car builders, [our] focus was on continuing to establish itself in the market and working with our customers to offer them solutions to their problems and make them more successful. It is not about us, it is about them. ... One thing is clear to me, and it is that 2017 will be a year of growth and positive forward movement for [us]. ... Because of our long-term view, we are unfazed by the state of things today and know that with our partnerships, capacity, capability, hard work and global expertise we will be successful now and into the future.We think it will be better and have staffed up for that scenario. The new administration is business friendly and has also promised to utilize America’s energy resources, including coal, both of which bode well for railroads and their equipment suppliers and service providers.BETTER — due to reductions in governmental regulations and increase in domestic infrastructure projects. Better ... improved expectations following political change.Better. Freight volumes in 2017 are expected to rise in most segments over a very poor 2016, which will increase rail-car demand and help reduce the surpluses that were built up over the last 15 months. Strong retirement rates will also have a positive effect on supply/demand balance of the fleet. [We expect] the U.S. economy to grow more rapidly in 2017, as a result of changes in the tax code, some deregulatory efforts and new investment in U.S. industry. Worldwide, the picture is more clouded. We expect economic growth to continue in Europe, to resume again in CIS countries, and to continue to be relatively strong in Asia. Rail freight traffic will continue its shift from commodities to industrial goods and containerized traffic. We are optimistic that 2017 will be a better year than last. Increased volumes in intermodal, industrial and coal are likely to help the industry turn around.2017 will be better — impact of polyethylene on petrochemical industry and exports.Better — our experience and proprietary approach to helping rail executives and their businesses finance current and future expansion projects produce breakthrough results.Better — easing of onerous regulations and stronger economy.Slightly better — improving economy due to new administration.I believe 2017 will be the same or slightly better than 2016.Our view of 2017 is that many industrial products will be mostly flat, year over year. We do expect to see improvements in the petro-chemical and intermodal markets in 2017 vs. 2016.We are very optimistic about our container and logistics businesses. [But] we expect our rail-car leasing business for be soft across the board — for the entire rail market until late summer 2017Compared to 2016, we expect 2017 to be marginally better for U.S freight rail because year-over-year revenue declines in the past three years have forced rail operators to become more efficient and positioned them to take advantage of potential favorable economic environment governed by a more business-friendly administration. However, we expect U.S rail companies to continue remaining challenged at discovering revenue growth opportunities to offset declining coal volume shipments and at overcoming “existential threats” resulting from technology-enabled shifting transportation capabilities.Worse; the overbuild of the last three to four years will continue to hurt the leasing market for years to come; some lessors and shippers have assets that are permanently impaired.Worse. More cars in storage and unusually low rents while Class I railroads charge extraordinarily high rates and are inflexible regarding empty cars movements to position for new lessees.I believe 2017 will be worse overall for the leasing business. Oversupply of locomotives is a current issue. Inexpensive capital has also contributed to the ability of end users to acquire power vs. leasing. Beyond this, large leasing companies have successfully upped their marketing and dropped their pricing to the point where it is nearly impossible to compete. 2017 will be challenging due to change in the traffic mix, as well as an increase of capital demands along with increasing customer expectations. [We have] lived through previous downturns and [have] helped customers through these challenges successfully.
What is the key issue facing the rail finance/leasing sector in 2017? Why?Uncertainty around new U.S. president's trade and regulatory polices/tariffs on trade flows, exchange rates and commodity prices/flows, oil, grain, containers and coal volumes. Additionally, financial markets (both equity and debt) are extremely liquid. This may begin to tighten.As a rail-car operating lessor, transportation consultant and management services provider, we believe the key issue facing the rail finance/leasing sector in 2017 will be the overall competitive environment for business in the new year. With older rail assets still in the system while a significant number of new build equipment (particularly high cube covered hoppers for grain, plastic pellets and frac sand) rolls off the assembly line, we anticipate seeing a continued market discrepancy on asset returns. It will take a while to work off some of the surplus assets currently in storage.The key issues facing rail leasing/financing in 2017 are what they have been for the past one to two years — high numbers of cars in storage, existing cars, because of segment downturns (oil pricing, for example), being available for sale or lease at low rates, and also the looming regulatory mandates in the existing DOT111/CPC1232 oil tanks cars. All these factors lead to downward stress on lease rates, significant fleet upgrade cost requirements and stress on the overall profitability of the leasing groups in the next few years. The key issue facing the rail finance/leasing sector in 2017 will be forecasting the shifts in need for different types of freight cars, based on the impact and timing of new administration’s policies when and if enacted.  We continue to work through an extreme overbuild in the industry, and that — combined with faster rail turn times, slower than expected growth in the chemical segment, and depressed oil and gas prices — [has] created a situation where rail-car supply will be greater than demand for a protracted period of time, and create one of the longest downturns the industry has seen. The industry would benefit from lessor and builder consolidation, and capacity being taken out of the marketplace.Huge cost burden on car owners and shippers due to the mileage-based charges of empty private tank cars to and from repair facilities. ... Hopefully, this will be evaluated in 2017 and tariffs will be eliminated.Overabundance of coal cars on the market.The key issue is the hunger (for high profit) of large leasing companies. Through driving rates incredibly low and not "showing up" at the last few auctions, they have effectively shortened the rope for all of us. Their advantage is in the volume. Adding in, with the rapid turnover (changing of the old guard) as more executives and managers retire, I see the new generation failing to perceive the value of quality locomotive assets. Numbers do not lie and they control everything in business. I see for 2017 a continued overabundance of locomotive assets, extremely low rates and north American lease fleet health starting a decline as well as major scrap projects restarting. I am hopeful for more economic growth to absorb a number of surplus locomotives and prevent major scrapping. I am hopeful money will be reinvested into the current "reliable" fleet; however, I just do not see enough growth possible.
 
There is an excess volume of MOW equipment in the market today. This has had a negative effect on utilization numbers.Rising interest rates, potential changes in off-shore profit treatment, rising dollar hurting exports, trade wars. Rail car pricing. Improvements in the 2017 freight environment will help reduce the surpluses and bring the fleet back in balance. These gains should be enough to stabilize rail car lease pricing for many segments. However, we don’t believe the gains will be significant enough to translate into large, meaningful increases in rail car lease pricing.Two factors will be important for the rail finance/leasing sector in 2017: First is the level and type of rail demand — growth? in what commodities or traffic types? Second will be the level of interest rates. We expect rail traffic to grow, but mostly in high-revenue commodities; many commodity-based freight cars will remain stored during 2017. We expect interest rates to increase slowly over the year.  Key issues include rail-car fleet sizing and utilization, and optimization of assets. Oversupply of rail cars will continue to depress lease and car values for 2017.Railroads and rail-related companies must organize their performance record, financial data and growth opportunities into a compelling case for lenders, investors and strategic partners.  One of the key issues facing lessors is lease rates significantly below investment targets.  This is mostly driven by lower energy prices, improved velocity, which impacts the number of cars needed and a short-term over-supply of rail equipment.Lack of velocity of rail cars leased into the marketplace. Soft rail freight market since fall of 2015. Soft rental rates caused by oversupply of cars. Aggressive pricing on the part of captive leasing companies owned by rail car manufacturers. Aggressive pricing by “big box” banks.  Change of management at the top of Class Is.1. Rail efficiencies may add to the excess supply of rail cars and locomotives. 2. New leasing standards will drive additional compliance requirements.
Keywords Browse articles on rail finance leasing execs business friendly environment rail car leasing Trump administration Finance & Leasing Guide Contact Progressive Railroading editorial staff.

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